• Both Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly and the country’s electoral commission have recently indicated that the 31 October presidential election is still set to proceed as scheduled, despite an ongoing coronavirus outbreak.
• However, a continued rise in coronavirus infection rates – amid constrained countermeasures – suggests that Cote d’Ivoire has not contained the outbreak and that the ballot will be compromised.
• While this will serve to increase political uncertainty, the more credible threat will be the socio-economic impact of a sustained coronavirus outbreak.

In a 21 April statement, Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly noted that Cote d’Ivoire’s presidential election is set to proceed as planned on 31 October 2020.

The statement by the prime minister – who has been nominated by the ruling RHDP as its presidential flagbearer – was echoed by Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert a few days later. In a 23 April communique, the recently elected president of Cote d’Ivoire’s electoral commission (CEI) stated that – until proven otherwise – the election will take place as per the schedule outlined in the country’s November 2016 constitution.

Polling amid a pandemic

However, both individuals did comment that the electoral schedule could still be disrupted by what Coulibaly-Kuibiert termed the “very real impact” of the domestic coronavirus outbreak. The CEI president further clarified that any directive to change the election schedule would lie with the government of President Alassane Ouattara.

As of 27 April, 1,150 coronavirus cases have been recorded in Cote d’Ivoire (of which 14 have been fatal). These figures are based on the estimated 8,292 epidemiological tests conducted by Ivorian health authorities since the country confirmed its index case on 11 March.

In a bid to contain the spread of the virus, the Ouattara administration has implemented several countermeasures. On 22 March, the administration ordered the closure of all of the country’s land, sea and air borders to human traffic for an indefinite period of time. Two days later, the government expanded its countermeasures through the declaration of a state of emergency. This included the imposition of a countrywide overnight curfew, effective between 21:00 and 05:00 local time daily, as well as restrictions on public gatherings and public transport. Initially set to expire on 24 April, the emergency decree and associated movement restrictions have been extended to 30 April.

Deviance and distancing

While Cote d’Ivoire’s prescribed social distancing measures conform to global best practices, they have been poorly adhered to. This is particularly the case in the city of Abidjan – which accounts for more than 90 percent of infections – where hundreds of people have been arrested since 24 March due to their non-compliance with the aforementioned restrictions.

Several arrests have occurred on account of participation in demonstrations. For example, on 06 April, violent and disruptive protests centred on the Toit Rouge area of Abidjan’s Yopougon commune, in response to rumours that a temporary healthcare facility was being established in the area to house and treat persons who have been infected with coronavirus. In protest to the development, local youths blocked roads in the area with burning tyres and debris, and proceeded to destroy the structure, which was in a formative phase. It was later disclosed that the facility in question was set to serve as a testing site and not a treatment centre.

Outside of Abidjan, a protest took place in the Guemon region town of Bangolo on 08 April, when residents blocked a truck transporting health supplies to the general hospital amid concerns that the vehicle and equipment were contaminated with the virus.

Protests and non-adherence to social distancing measures are not the only developments that threaten to trigger a larger-scale outbreak of coronavirus within Cote d’Ivoire.

Of the country’s current infections, several have been confirmed as healthcare workers, with the Cocody University Hospital Centre in Abidjan among the health facilities worst affected. The infection of healthcare workers has resulted in labour unions representing workers in the medical sector renewing a strike notice aimed at ensuring the supply of improved personal protection equipment (PPE) and other resources to healthcare professionals.

Feeling the brunt

In addition to managing the public health implications of the coronavirus pandemic, the Ouattara administration has sought to limit its adverse economic impact, which threatens to undercut the country’s years-long period of rapid growth.

One such measure has been the government’s approaching the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to provide emergency funding to assist in its management of the pandemic. In this regard, the IMF pledged to disburse USD 886.2 million via its Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), as per a statement released by the fund on 17 April.

In confirming the provision of funding, the IMF noted that the Ouattara administration’s response to the pandemic has been swift, with strong social distancing and containment measures and an emergency health plan supported by the World Health Organization. However, the IMF commented that Cote d’Ivoire is “feeling the brunt” of the outbreak, with the economic outlook for 2020 expected to deteriorate substantially owing to the sharp slowdown in activity among the country’s trading partners, decreased investor confidence, and the adverse economic impact of the necessary domestic containment and mitigation measures.

The RCF and RFI disbursements form part of a wider USD 2.8 billion initiative by the Ouattara administration – equivalent to 5 percent of the country’s GDP – which is being rolled out to absorb the economic impact of coronavirus. Funding will also be secured through the country’s issuance of its inaugural coronavirus bonds – along with 12 other member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) – in the regional market on 27 April.

The offerings will consist of 3-month Treasury bills (BATs) at multiple rates less than or equal to 3.75 percent. The securities issued are repayable on the first working day following the maturity date, which has been set at 27 July 2020, and sovereigns will have access to a special refinancing facility from the regional central bank.

The Signal

Cote d’Ivoire is assessed as being vulnerable to a larger-scale domestic coronavirus outbreak. In our Coronavirus Resilience Index, the country is assessed as having a moderate capacity to address the negative public health, economic and political effects of the pandemic. In particular, Cote d’Ivoire is considered to have comparatively strong public health resources – which are generally limited to Abidjan – along with a similarly moderate degree of economic and political resilience. However, the country’s testing capacity remains notably poor, as denoted by only approximately 8,292 tests having been conducted since 11 March, which equates to a testing capacity of roughly 336 per 1 million people; this is in contrast to South Africa, for example, which has undertaken 161,000 tests – a rate of over 2,500 tests per million people. This raises concerns that the number of coronavirus cases could be significantly understated. The non-adherence to countermeasures – as well as communal resistance to attempts by the state to enhance healthcare capacity in high-priority areas – are all factors which could not only see the continued spread of coronavirus, but which may also compel the Ouattara administration to expand existing regulations.

However, any intensification or extension of coronavirus restrictive measures risks triggering significant civil agitation. As demonstrated both continentally and globally, the next evolution of countermeasures in Cote d’Ivoire may include highly restrictive curfew conditions in hotspots such as Abidjan, or perhaps the imposition of a countrywide lockdown accompanied by extensive restrictions on commercial activity. Based on communal resistance to more moderate measures in Abidjan, the enforcement of such restrictions would be particularly damaging to the country’s poor, who rely heavily on informal economic activities (which would otherwise be restricted under tighter regulations). Faced with limited recourse, the avenues to demonstrate grievances could be limited to protests and minor criminality, such as looting. This risk will remain most acute in high-density, lower-income areas of Abidjan and other major urban centres.

From a political perspective, the ruling RHDP entity of President Alassane Ouattara would likely benefit from holding the presidential election according to its current schedule and may thus not actively seek to postpone the ballot on account of coronavirus. At this stage, coronavirus-induced restrictions on public gatherings will limit the opposition’s ability to engage in processes such as electioneering and brokering alliances, thus favouring the incumbent administration. Meanwhile, key figures who have announced their intention to contest the election – notably ex-president, Laurent Gbagbo, and former prime minister, Guillaume Soro – remain embattled by judicial proceedings which could disrupt their participation in the vote. Moreover, the RHDP-led government’s management of the coronavirus pandemic – which is anticipated to be rooted in enhanced social spending and tax relief – could provide a strong electioneering tool for the ruling party in the absence of formal political campaigning, granting Amadou Gon Coulibaly a distinct advantage over his competitors. Nonetheless, it is still anticipated that the RHDP will make a definitive decision on the electoral schedule based on advice from the country’s health authorities, as opposed to political strategy.

In this regard, current evidence suggests that Cote d’Ivoire’s 31 October 2020 presidential election is likely to be deferred. As outlined, coronavirus infection rates in the country continue to increase, with limited mitigating circumstances. As such, processes essential to the holding of elections – particularly public campaigning and voter list confirmation – are expected to be delayed by existing social distancing measures. If the election is indeed delayed, President Ouattara’s mandate would be extended. This much is stipulated in Article 59 of the country’s constitution, which holds that a president’s mandate only expires once elections are held and the newly elected head of state is inaugurated as president. A deferral of the election would likely be welcomed by opposition candidates, who will be able to better prepare and campaign for the ballot. Conversely, should the election proceed as planned, it could incite significant consternation by the country’s political opposition, who may mobilise protests in response to the ballot proceeding within the context of a restrictive pre-electoral climate. The threat of civil unrest would be particularly elevated in Abidjan, which hosts the headquarters of several major opposition parties such as the PDCI-RDA and FPI.

While Cote d’Ivoire has been urgent in responding to the negative economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, the current interventions will not be sufficient to limit the significant deceleration in annual growth that will arise. In the best-case scenario – presented by the government – the pandemic will cut expected growth for 2020 from 7.2 percent to 3.6 percent. However, a more likely scenario is that presented by the IMF, which anticipates growth to slow to 2.7 percent. Driving the deceleration is depressed global demand for the country’s mainstay cocoa output, which accounts for roughly 15 percent of GDP and 38 percent of exports. Declining demand for other key exports, including cashews and rubber, will also add to current account and output pressures, offsetting any potential productivity gains from the government’s allocation of USD 410 million to the agriculture industry in April. Beyond exports, suppressed tertiary activity, along with diminishing private and public investment, will add to the slowdown. Despite a relatively sizeable stimulus package, its efficacy in maintaining economic momentum will be diluted by various non-stimulatory (but necessary) expenditures; these mainly focus on healthcare and human resource interventions. That said, the country can leverage its modest financial position – which includes a fiscal deficit measuring only about 3 percent of GDP in 2019 – to acquire further concessional funding from bilateral and multilateral partners in order to bolster its broad response capacity to the pandemic.