• President Ali Bongo Ondimba announced on 09 July that he will contest the presidency for a third successive term during the 26 August general elections.
• The presidential leg of the vote will be the first of its kind to be held in the country since the disputed 2016 polls in which Bongo defeated consensus opposition candidate Jean Ping by a margin of 6,000 votes.
• A subsequent outbreak of post-election unrest in 2016 prompted Bongo to institute various constitutional reforms to seemingly level the electoral playing field; however, some key amendments – most notably the transition from a single to multi-leg electoral format – have since been rescinded.
• Despite popular dissatisfaction with Bongo’s reneging on reforms, most major opposition candidates have announced their intention to participate in the ballot, with a number of these figures aligning under the aegis of the Alternance 2023 platform.
• However, divisions within the opposition – combined with a relatively uneven electoral playing field – render Bongo a strong favourite to be re-elected.
• Policy positioning by the Bongo administration is not anticipated to markedly shift ahead of the electoral cycle.

On 09 July, president Ali Bongo Ondimba (Bongo) formally confirmed that he would contest the 26 August general elections. During a public appearance at the Special Economic Zone of Nkok, located on the outskirts of Libreville, the statesman announced that he had accepted the nomination of the ruling PDG party to stand as its presidential flagbearer.

Reform and revert

Having assumed the Gabonese presidency following the death of his father in 2009, Bongo was elected for a second term in 2016 under controversial circumstances. His defeat of former United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) president and FUOPA coalition candidate, Jean Ping, by a mere 6,000 votes was marred by allegations of electoral fraud.

This sparked a period of intense, albeit brief, civil unrest which threatened the stability of the central African state. Nonetheless, the statesman was able to navigate the tumultuous period via a national dialogue process in which he offered various socio-political concessions to the opposition in the form of amendments to the Gabonese constitution.

The most notable of these constitutional reforms was the amendment of the format of the country’s electoral system from the traditional first-past-the-post framework to a two-round voting system – a format which the political opposition had claimed would dilute the powers of incumbency and induce a more competitive electoral landscape.

As of 2023, however, it appears that Bongo has reneged on his commitment to level Gabon’s political playing field. Following a renewed national dialogue process launched in February to finalise the framework for the forthcoming electoral cycle, representatives of the PDG party raised concern regarding the associated costs of a multi-stage electoral process. This, at a time when the Gabonese fiscus is still recovering from the externalities of the coronavirus epidemic and Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.

It was thus argued by PDG legislators that a two-round electoral format would be simply unsustainable and that Gabon should revert to a single-round system. Other constitutional reforms advocated during the February national dialogue process were decreasing term limits for both presidents and legislators from seven to five years, an amendment which Bongo himself claimed would bring modernity to Gabon’s political system. Also adopted was decreasing the registration fees for aspiring presidential candidates from XOF 20 million to XOF 10 million.

Obstinate opponents

During a 03 March sitting, the amendments deliberated during the February national dialogue process were almost unanimously adopted in the PDG-dominated legislature, with 116 of the 125 legislators present approving the constitutional reforms.

Those that voted against the reforms – which were formally adopted into law on 06 April – included opposition PSD leader and former Gabonese vice president, Pierre-Claver Maganga Moussavou, who labelled the amendments – particularly the transition back to a single-round voting system – as an “aberration”. Moussavou went on to note that “when we make a constitutional reform, it is to develop democracy”, asserting that the re-instatement of the first-past-the-post system is “a democratic setback”.

That said, Moussavou’s discontent with the constitutional amendments did not prevent him from registering with Gabon’s electoral commission (CENAP) on 14 March to contest the presidency. Moussavou was not the only figure in this regard. Notable opposition politician Paulette Missambo has also thrown her proverbial hat in the ring.

Although Missambo – who heads the UN party and formally served as a cabinet minister within the PDG-led government under the regime of Omar Bongo Ondimba (1967 to 2009) – boycotted the national dialogue process, she announced on 20 May that she would run for head of state. Her motivation in this regard was to ensure that the Gabonese people would not be “condemned” to another tenure under Bongo’s governance.

Prepping a platform

While acknowledging that the political balance is heavily skewed in the incumbent’s favour in light of the recent constitutional reforms, Missambo is still ardent that the opposition stands a good chance in the forthcoming electoral cycle. Her optimism in this regard was articulated in an interview with French news media agency Jeune Afrique, which was published on 26 June 2023.

As per Missambo, the opposition’s best chance of toppling the Bongo dynasty would be through a common alliance, as had been forged during the 2016 ballot. To this effect, Missambo co-founded in January the so-called Alternance 2023 platform, of which she currently serves as president. Also adding his weight to the platform is Moussavou – who has emerged as the main spokesperson for the alliance – in addition to RPM leader, Alexandre Barro Chambier.

As articulated by its founding members, Alternance 2023 seeks to pool together human and financial resources from its constituents to present a unified opposition front to Bongo and the PDG in the forthcoming electoral cycle. To this effect, the platform is deliberating on presenting common lists for the presidential, legislative, local and senatorial legs of the election to enhance the chances of its nominated candidates besting their PDG counterparts.

As per Missambo, a wide-ranging calculus will be considered in nominating candidates for each constituency in the various electoral legs; however, constituent members of the platform will still be allowed to concurrently present their own candidates if they so wish. This caveat is perhaps best exemplified by the fact that Missambo, Moussavou and Chambier have all announced their decision to stand for election on the tickets of their respective parties.

In addition to the aforementioned trio, there are at least 15 other candidates who are seeking to contest the Gabonese presidency, either on the ticket of the Alternance 2023 platform, as flagbearers of their respective political parties, or as independents. Notable names include former prime minister (2012-2014) Raymond Ndong Sima; former Bongo advisor Mike Jocktane; economist and former minister, Albert Ondo Ossa; former parliamentarian Bertrand Zibi Abeghe; and perhaps most notably, Philippe Nzengue Mayila, who is leader of the country’s largest opposition party by parliamentary seats (11), Les Democrats. Notably, Mayila withdrew Les Democrats from the Alternance 2023 coalition due to a dispute surrounding his party’s representation within the structures of the platform.

A notable absentee from the list of presidential aspirants is Jean Ping, who has yet to announce whether he will indeed contest the forthcoming vote against Bongo. Ping has not formally indicated whether he will vie for the presidency and has not endorsed any contender or political organisation ahead of the electoral cycle. Should he indeed wish to run for Gabon’s highest office, the octogenarian will have until 14 July to formally register his candidacy, although the possibility of him doing so is deemed highly unlikely at this juncture.

The Signal

President Ali Bongo Ondimba’s contestation of the 26 August presidential elections indicates his consolidation of power within the ruling PDG. After suffering a stroke in November 2018, Bongo’s position as both head of state and leader of the ruling PDG party was considered tenuous. This was highlighted in January 2019, following an attempted coup d’etat by members of the country’s armed forces who – at the time – legitimised their thwarted power grab due to “doubts about the president’s ability to continue to carry out the responsibilities of his office”, as per a statement issued at the time by coup leader Lieutenant Kelly Ondo Obiang. Following an extended convalescence in Morocco, however, Bongo returned to Gabon in March 2019 and sought to nullify perceived threats to his position. Amid continued questions regarding his ability to exercise executive powers, Bongo consolidated his power through strategic appointments and the repression of key critics within the ranks of the political opposition and civil society. His success in this respect was evident by Bongo’s uncontested December 2022 nomination within PDG structures as its presidential candidate.

Bongo’s nomination by the PDG is also indicative of his improved health. Since returning to Gabon in March, Bongo has grown in strength and stature, having made several public appearances and foreign visits abroad, in which he has demonstrated that he is capable of executing his presidential duties. There is currently no immediate evidence to suggest that the statesman will not be medically fit to stand for re-election during the 26 August polls. However, should the president be rendered as such prior to the election, Article 13 of the constitution dictates that all president powers will be transferred to the president of the senate, currently Lucie Milebou Aubusson, who would exercise all presidential powers until the 26 August elections. In such a scenario, it is most likely that the PDG will elect Ondimba’s son, Nourredine Bongo Valentin, as its flagbearer; Valentin currently holds the position of General Coordinator of Presidential Affairs.

President Bongo will head into the election as the frontrunner. This assessment is based on various factors, the foremost of which pertains to the power of incumbency, as it provides the executive control over state resources. Moreover, there is considerable evidence to suggest that Bongo wields undue influence over key political institutions – such as the electoral commission and constitutional court – which are pivotal within the context of the elections. Also favouring the president are current electoral laws. By ensuring that the elections take a first-past-the-post format, Bongo will need to secure a simple majority over an opposition field which – as of the time of writing – is deemed to be divided. On the contrary, in a second-round vote, Bongo would contest a run-off election against a candidate which would likely have received the endorsement of the country’s wider opposition, thereby complicating attempts at vote manipulation. Finally, the likely absence of Jean Ping from the ballot sheet will starve the opposition of a candidate with broad-based appeal that can transcend ethnic and political dynamics – which play key roles in Gabon’s electoral calculus.

The political opposition is expected to remain constrained in finding a consensus candidate to contest the election against Bongo. As mentioned, the absence of Ping leaves the opposition bereft of a standout candidate with the broad-based appeal to match that of Bongo. This is expected to cause significant competitiveness within the ranks of the opposition playing field, with key candidates such as Pierre-Claver Maganga Moussavou, Alexandre Barro Chambier and Paulette Missambo all likely to back their own political ambitions. This is expected to cause jostling within the structures of Alternance 2023 – of which the aforementioned personas are all members – and affect the coalition’s stated intent to present a unified front against Bongo and the PDG in all legs of the forthcoming electoral cycle. The platform may find itself constrained in presenting a consensus candidate and may let constituent members run independently in the presidential leg of the ballot but maintain a degree of collaboration in the legislative, local and senatorial elections, which will be held in 2027. As noted above, multiple opposition candidates will split the vote. Even within a context of Alternance 2023 finding a consensus candidate, Les Democrats leader Philippe Nzengue Mayila’s intention to run independently from the platform will again split the opposition vote to Bongo’s direct benefit.

The political environment is likely to become more repressive ahead of the ballot. Gabon’s political environment over the near term is anticipated to be largely dominated by campaigning for the forthcoming electoral cycle. Although the campaigning period will officially run from 11 to 25 August, increased electioneering across the political spectrum is anticipated to increase following the closure of the candidate registration deadline on 14 July. Campaign and electoral events will carry the potential of increasing political tensions, and could well culminate with increased repression of the socio-political landscape by the Bongo administration. Such tactics are particularly likely to be deployed against critical voices from the political and civic space, which will seek to highlight the deficiencies of the incumbent’s administration ahead of the vote. Such actions, however, are not anticipated to foment any significant unrest, with the political environment expected to remain stable ahead of the elections.

No significant policy changes are anticipated in the lead-up to the vote. From an economic perspective, while some discretionary public spending is possible by the government, policy is anticipated to be guided by an ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme that is anchored on fiscal consolidation, economic diversification, and debt stabilisation. GDP growth of 3 percent is projected for 2023, driven primarily by the mainstay hydrocarbon sector and relatively strong levels of activity in the mining and timber industries.