• Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze was appointed prime minister on 09 January, replacing Rose Christiane Ossouka Raponda, who has assumed the post of vice president.
• Bilie-By-Nze unveiled a new cabinet, hours after his appointment. It largely mirrors that of its predecessor, suggesting that no major policy shift is expected.
• Rather, Bilie-By-Nze’s appointment and changes that were made to the cabinet are seen as an attempt by president Ali Bongo Ondimba to ensure support from key allies ahead of his expected contesting of the presidential election in June.

President Ali Bongo Ondimba appointed Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze as prime minister on 09 January. Bilie-By-Nze replaces Rose Christiane Ossouka Raponda, who has been appointed as vice president (a post which has been vacant since 2019). Prior to his ascension to the premiership, Bilie-By-Nze had been deputy prime minister (and government spokesperson) since October 2022. The new premier is an historic ally of Bongo.

No rationale was provided by Bongo for his decision to appoint Bilie-By-Nze as prime minister. Although, the performance of the government was ostensibly not a motivating factor, given that Bilie-By-Nze unveiled a new cabinet, hours after his appointment, that largely mirrors its predecessor in terms of personnel.

That said, several portfolio heads were moved to other ministries, seemingly to accommodate the departure of industry minister Pacome Moubelet Boubeya, who was replaced by Blaise Louembe, and new appointments of Rodrigue Mboumba Bissawou as communication minister and Rene Ndemezo’o Obiang as minister of state for consumer affairs. Six new delegate (deputy) ministers were also appointed, all of whom are notable members of Bongo’s PDG party. Bilie-By-Nze’s former post of deputy prime minister was not immediately filled.

The Signal

The changes to government are not expected to result in any material policy shift. This notion is supported by prime minister Alain-Claude Bilie-By-Nze’s retention of nearly all personnel from the previous cabinet, while key portfolios such as finance, defence, and foreign affairs kept their respective ministers. As such, no interruptions to the government’s policy programme are anticipated as a result of the cabinet shuffle. This is particularly the case in the realm of economics, where the state’s policy agenda continues to be guided by an ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme that is anchored on fiscal consolidation, economic diversification, and debt stabilisation.

The changes are rather seen as signalling president Ali Bongo Ondimba’s intent to contest the June presidential election. Bongo has yet to formally announce his intention to seek a third term in office – which he is constitutionally allowed to do – despite his PDG party formally nominating him as its flagbearer on 27 December. Nevertheless, during a speech in March, Bongo did allude to the possibility that he will seek another term in office. Furthermore, the statesman has taken steps to consolidate his power within both state and party structures since 2020, suggesting that he is preparing for another presidential bid. Bilie-By-Nze’s appointment to the premiership serves to enhance this notion, given that he was reported as being integral to Bongo’s electoral victory in 2016, and will likely once again be involved in rallying support for the statesman should he indeed contest the ballot. Bilie-By-Nze also remains an influential figure within the PDG, and his appointment as premier (alongside the other entries into his cabinet) will only entrench the already strong control Bongo has over the party and deter any possible challenges. In fact, it cannot be discounted that the government changes may be a result of the PDG’s December endorsement of Bongo as flagbearer and the role Bilie-By-Nze and others played in ensuring it was without challenge. Should Bongo confirm his decision to run in 2023, his victory is effectively guaranteed. This is due to his control over Gabon’s political system, the lack of a credible electoral system, and a fragmented opposition.

In the event that president Bongo does not seek to contest the election, it is likely that he will use the aforementioned allies to ensure his chosen successor is supported by the party. There is little to suggest at this time that Bongo will not seek re-election. The only barrier to a third term would be Bongo’s health (the president suffered a stroke in October 2018, underwent surgery, and spent three months out of the country receiving treatment). He appears to have made a full recovery since, and there are no signs that Bongo’s health is failing. Nonetheless, should health or other political factors see Bongo not stand for office, his eldest son and special advisor 30-year-old Noureddin Edouard Bongo-Valentin is seen as his chosen successor. In such a scenario, Bongo’s placement of influential allies in key posts would ensure that no material challenges to the succession emerge, and Bongo-Valentin becomes the party’s flagbearer (and expected victor in the June ballot).