Back

Burundi – Passing on

  • On 09 June, the Burundian government confirmed the death of President Pierre Nkurunziza.
  • While his demise was attributed to cardiac arrest, there are strong suggestions that Nkurunziza may have been infected with coronavirus at the time of his passing.
  • Nkurunziza’s death may complicate a planned transition of power to his successor and victor of Burundi’s 20 May presidential elections, Evariste Ndayishimiye, given that the constitution is unclear on the process of succession for a deceased outgoing head of state.

On 09 June, the government of Burundi announced the death of incumbent president, Pierre Nkurunziza. In its communique, the state claimed that Nkurunziza succumbed to cardiac arrest, less than 48 hours after he was admitted to the Karusi Fiftieth Anniversary Hospital.

A case of corona?

While no further information has been provided on whether the Burundian statesman suffered from any underlying illnesses, reports from the local RPA radio station – which published reports of Nkurunziza’s death prior to the official government communique – claimed that the statesman’s initial hospitalisation was due to coronavirus. Adding credibility to such claims were reports on 30 May which indicated that Nkurunziza’s wife and Burundian first lady, Denise Bucumi Nkurunziza, was airlifted to the Aga Khan University Hospital in Nairobi, Kenya, due to coronavirus-related health complications.

Denial and divinity

Should Nkurunziza indeed have been infected with coronavirus at the time of his death, it would stand to reason that the Burundian state would have resisted disclosing this information.

For one, the Nkurunziza administration has faced significant criticism for its management of the domestic coronavirus outbreak. While the country only officially registered 83 confirmed coronavirus cases, and one associated death (as of 09 June), the degree of transmission in Burundi is assessed as being significantly understated. This, not only as an outcome of the country’s poor testing capacity – currently standing at a mere 32 people per million members of its population – but also due to the country’s resistance to instituting social distancing measures, in addition to its antagonism of international health agencies actively trying to augment the country’s limited healthcare capacity.

In terms of the latter, the Nkurunziza administration not only prevented NGOs from accessing the country’s designated coronavirus treatment centres, but also dismissed a team from the World Health Organization (WHO) on 13 May due to its alleged ‘“unacceptable interference in its management of the coronavirus”.

The ascension of Evariste

Nkurunziza instead touted prayer as the panacea to the virus, while also advocating that divine intervention would protect the Burundian citizenry as they headed to vote in general elections on 20 May.

As predicted, the presidential ballot concluded with a resounding victory for Nkurunziza’s successor, Evariste Ndayishimiye, who secured around 68 percent of ballots cast. In second place was former rebel-turned-politician and presidential contender, Agathon Rwasa, who garnered 29 percent of the vote. In the parliamentary leg of the ballot, Nkurunziza and Ndayishimiye’s ruling CNDD-FDD party similarly scored a landslide victory, winning 86 of the 110 legislative seats up for grabs.

Although Rwasa and his CNL party proceeded to challenge the results on the basis of electoral fraud – a judicial petition that was procedurally dismissed by the Constitutional Court, which upheld the provisional results on 04 June – Burundi’s political opposition have seemingly resigned themselves to the electoral outcome. Hours before Nkurunziza’s death on 09 June, Rwasa noted that his party has accepted the election results, specifically noting, “The CNL party will respect what the law says by doing what the law allows us to do” in an interview with the Voice of America news agency.

Notably, Rwasa’s position was echoed by the CNARED opposition alliance. In addition to stating that the Constitutional Court ruling was “irreversible”, CNARED senior official Mames Bansubiye passed on his congratulations to Ndayishimiye for his electoral win.

A tricky transition

While the tacit acceptance of the electoral outcome should have paved the way for the ascendance of Ndayishimiye to Burundi’s political helm, Nkurunziza’s death may have complicated what was otherwise expected to be a straightforward political transition.

As per Article 121 of Burundi’s constitution, the death of the sitting president requires presidential powers to be transferred to the President of the National Assembly; in this case, fellow CNDD-FDD figure, Pascal Nyabenda. However, Nyabenda’s capacity to assume executive power remains in doubt amid claims that he too may be infected with coronavirus. If the National Assembly president is indeed unable to assume the presidency, the same constitutional clause dictates that executive power will be transferred to Vice President Gaston Sindimwo, who will lead an interim administration in accordance with the legislature.

However, any government headed by Sindimwo will not have the mandate to form a new government – a process scheduled to take place on 20 August, when Ndayishimiye was set to be inaugurated as Burundian president. The date in question was also expected to see the country’s legislature reconstituted as per results of the parliamentary leg of the 20 May ballot. Instead, the Burundian constitution dictates that the interim administration can govern for a period of no more than 90 days, during which renewed elections are mandated to be held.

The Signal

Irrespective of whether Nkurunziza’s death was indeed linked to coronavirus, Burundi’s official position on the disease – and measures employed against it – is unlikely to change. The country is expected to continue ignoring global best practises – particularly social distancing measures – and remain antagonistic to foreign health agencies and NGOs seeking to assist in the country’s coronavirus counter-response; this is largely due to accusations that such agencies are monitoring the country’s human rights record, which remains poor. Burundi’s consistent policy position toward coronavirus will continue to see the country score poorly on our Coronavirus Resilience Index, which measures African countries’ relative resilience to the political and socio-economic externalities of the pandemic. Indeed, Burundi is jointly assessed as being the third-most vulnerable African state on the index. As such, the consequences of the pandemic could have an acute impact on both lives and livelihoods within the underdeveloped and donor-dependent Burundian state.

While there are no immediate socio-political concerns associated with Nkurunziza’s death, his absence from Burundi’s polity and the leadership structures of the CNDD-FDD could create a vacuum in both these spheres of power. In terms of the Burundian state, Nkurunziza’s death could embolden groups such as the Forces Républicaines du Burundi (Forebu) and État de Droit au Burundi (RED-Tabara) to destabilise the prevailing status quo through acts of violence, targeting state and security interests. Although these dissident groups are not assessed as possessing the operational capacity to overthrow the CNDD-FDD government, they could attempt to launch a low-level and pervasive insurgency from their alleged bases along the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Within the CNDD-FDD itself, Nkurunziza’s departure from the party’s helm could entrench rivalries which had already led to factionalism within the movement. Although the bulk of the party will consolidate behind Ndayishimiye, the president-elect is unlikely to maintain total control over all party structures. While not expected to cause near-term frictions, Ndayishimiye’s management of the party and Burundi could be subject to greater scrutiny and possible contention from within the ruling party.

Despite the ambiguity regarding Burundi’s political transition, it is expected that Ndayishimiye will be inaugurated as the country’s new president before, on or near the initially set date of 20 August. Although Burundi’s constitution does not make allowances for the prevailing scenario, interpretation is expected to be provided by the Constitutional Court, which is partial to the interests of the CNDD-FDD. Moreover, the acceptance of the electoral outcome by the CNL and CNARED should further endorse an expected decision by the apex court to allow the political transition to occur as scheduled prior to Nkurunziza’s death. At this stage, it is highly unlikely that renewed elections will be organised, with the political opposition also unlikely to agitate for such an outcome.

In the medium term, a shift in the socio-economic and political trajectory of Burundi is not anticipated under Ndayishimiye’s tenure. His presidency is expected to see continued oversight in the commercial space, arbitrary intervention, and inconsistent application of regulations in a bid to extract rents by the economically embattled Burundian state. Foreign and non-state-aligned private interests in the country’s mainstay mining and agricultural sectors will be the most vulnerable to such government manoeuvring. Crucially, such regulatory overreach will continue to disincentivise investment in Burundi, including in its promising rare earth minerals sub-sector, which is seen as a key vehicle for growth in the coming years. Subdued investment, along with continued diplomatic isolation, will deepen and prolong its years-long macro- and socio-economic crises, and its capacity to recover from this trajectory, which has already been hampered by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, as per the International Monetary Fund, the Burundian economy will contract by 5.5 percent in 2020 (from growth of 1.8 percent in 2019) due to coronavirus-induced disruptions to exports, domestic activity and regional commerce. The lack of internal financial capacity and multilateral or bilateral support means that Burundi will have no resources to engineer any kind of recovery beyond that which may be derived from broader market forces.