• The ruling UPND party confirmed on 15 April incumbent Hakainde Hichilema as its leader and presidential candidate in the 13 August general elections.
• Challenges raised by some UPND members against Hichilema’s nomination do not represent a material threat to party unity ahead of the vote.
• Hichilema is expected to secure a second term of office, while the UPND should retain its parliamentary majority.
• Inflation and cost-of-living concerns could become key issues ahead of the vote.

The ruling UPND held a general conference at the Mulungushi International Conference Centre in Lusaka on 15 April. During the gathering, incumbent president Hakainde Hichilema was confirmed as the party’s leader and therefore the UPND’s presidential candidate in general elections scheduled for 13 August.

Approximately 440 delegates attended the elective congress, in which Hichilema was the sole candidate; he was formally nominated by the party on 12 April. Also at the conference, delegates elected the 70 members of the party’s National Management Committee (NMC), which had been formally dissolved by Hichilema earlier in the day.

Head of the party’s electoral commission, Isaac Mwanza, stated after the vote that he had received three challenges against Hichilema’s re-election that had been subsequently dismissed. Mwanza provided no further information on the petitions, but local media reports suggested that one may have been submitted by party member Charles Longwe.

In March, Longwe claimed that the mandate of the party’s executive – including Hichilema – had expired in February (five years after the party’s current leadership was elected). Longwe called for the suspension of the party’s leadership and for the holding of internal elections; he also requested an injunction on all party activities until the matter was resolved (which does not appear to have been granted). On 08 April, the UPND’d Mark Simuuwe stated that he had referred Longwe and two others to the police on the grounds that they had impersonated party leaders.

The Signal

Challenges raised by some UPND members against president Hakainde Hichilema’s nomination do not represent a material threat to party unity ahead of the vote. The concerns raised by Charles Longwe, and a handful of other party members, ahead of the conference were largely procedural. While the exact nature of the three petitions submitted to the party’s electoral commission has not been made public, they are likely to be of a similarly technical nature. Longwe’s grievances have been disputed by several high-ranking party members, including government spokesperson Cornelius Mweetwa and UPND secretary general Batuke Imenda. This reflects the position of the party’s leadership structure and the large majority of its membership base; Longwe’s concerns do not appear to be shared outside of an isolated group of party members. This indicates the party’s overall loyalty to Hichilema who, as president, is arguably the country’s most influential figure. The fact that Hichilema was the only candidate nominated ahead of the conference suggests that the party is attempting to present a unified image in the run-up to the polls. There is also no one individual within the party who could garner enough support to present a material challenge to Hichilema. As such, in terms of career advancement, most party members appear to have decided that it is preferable to align with Hichilema rather than oppose him. As such, the possibility that concerns raised by Longwe and others could lead to substantial infighting within the ruling party ahead of the vote is low.

Hichilema is expected to secure a second term of office and the UPND to retain its parliamentary majority. One of the most material factors acting in Hichilema’s favour is the opposition infighting triggered by former president Edgar Lungu’s death in June 2025. There are several individuals who have claimed to lead Lungu’s PF party after his death and who may seek to run in the forthcoming elections. These include acting party president Given Lubinda; former PF parliamentarian Makebi Zulu; PF legislator Brian Mundubile; PF parliamentarian Miles Sampa; and leader of the opposition in parliament, Robert Chabinga. Zulu was selected from among 6 candidates as the party’s presidential nominee in a contested leadership convention held in Lusaka on 21 March (which was not recognised by all party members). Zulu beat former health minister Chitalu Chilufya and acting PF president Lubinda. Lubinda had until then been considered a strong candidate to represent the PF in the polls; it is not yet clear if he has accepted the outcome of the internal election or if he intends to run under the banner of a different party. Mundubile will contest the election as the candidate of the Tonse Alliance, an opposition coalition established by Lungu in 2024. On 03 April, Sampa claimed that he was still the president of the PF following a controversial 2024 electoral congress. Finally, Chabinga is the leader of the opposition in parliament and claims to be the PF’s legitimate leader. He has sought to prevent the PF from holding an electoral conference, claiming that it was not necessary or in line with the party’s constitution. He has previously expressed support for Hichilema, with local media reports from 20 March suggesting that he may have joined the UPND. Chabinga may therefore endorse Hichilema rather than contest the election himself. The opposition’s inability to support a consensus candidate will divide the opposition vote in favour of Hichilema. In addition, Hichilema has introduced several popular policies during his term such as the implementation of free primary and secondary education, and the continuation of an agricultural input subsidy scheme. This could partially offset a decline in popularity over his tenure (due in part to his failure to fully deliver on political and socio-economic campaign promises). Hichilema also retains a strong support base among the Tonga community in Southern province.

Inflation and cost-of-living concerns could become key issues ahead of the vote. While annual inflation has trended downwards over the last year, reaching 7.1 percent in March, passthrough effects from price volatility in global energy markets and exchange rate pressure may well reverse this trend. On 01 April, the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) increased the petrol price to ZMW 27.15 (USD 1.41) per litre from ZMW 26.61 (USD 1.38), and diesel to ZMW 29.78 (USD 1.54) per litre, from ZMW 23.25 (USD 1.20). The price increase was somewhat ameliorated by the cabinet’s decision on 31 March to suspend excise duty on fuel imports and to zero-rate VAT on fuel products. Despite the relatively modest price increases, fuel shortages have been reported at several service stations across the country in recent weeks despite the government’s assurances of adequate reserves. The shortages appear to have been driven by panic buying and potential hoarding by some market actors. Finance minister Situmbeko Musokotwane stated in a 14 April address that measures to protect consumers could cost the government as much as USD 200 million in lost revenue over the three-month period that they will be in effect. This will add to existing fiscal pressure – identified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a 05 March report – related to an increase in the public wage bill, support to the agricultural sector, and election-related spending (although authorities are still expected to maintain a fiscal surplus in 2026). With supply and price shocks likely to continue, authorities could extend existing measures or implement new policies in order to protect consumer purchasing power and limit possible increases in anti-government sentiment. Hichilema will nonetheless attempt to balance expedient spending with the imperative to maintain overall macroeconomic stability introduced in his first term of office.