• Opposition leader Succes Masra was arrested on 16 May on charges of inciting violence.
• He is reportedly being charged with regard to fatal intercommunal violence that took place in Logone Occidental province on 14 May, during which at least 42 people were killed.
• Masra’s Les Transformateurs party has denounced the charges as politically motivated.
• It is likely that Masra’s arrest was indeed political, and intended to shift blame for the violence, which had initially been reported to be over a land dispute.
• Masra’s arrest and expected prosecution reflect a definitive end to president Mahamat Deby’s efforts to reconcile with the opposition.
• The potential for opposition protests will be heightened over the near term, but widespread or significant unrest is not expected at this stage.

Former prime minister and leader of the Les Transformateurs opposition party, Succes Masra, was arrested on the morning of 16 May at his home in N’Djamena. Masra’s arrest was confirmed by public prosecutor Oumar Mahamat Kedelaye. This, after Les Transformateurs vice president Ndolembai Sade Njesada claimed in a social media post on 16 May that Masra had been “abducted by force” at around 06:00 local time by ten armed men in uniform. Njesada uploaded CCTV footage which appeared to show Masra’s arrest.

According to Kedelaye, the opposition leader was detained over various charges including, “incitement to hatred”, “revolt”, “complicity in murder”, and “the desecration of graves”. These charges are reportedly related to intercommunal clashes that occurred on 14 May in the village of Mandakao (Logone Occidental province), which led to at least 42 fatalities. Territorial administration minister Limane Mahamat stated during a press conference on 16 May that the violence had been incited by audio recordings that had been released on social media, which reportedly called for “revolt” and for citizens to “arm themselves”. Although Mahamat did not indicate who was behind this recording, Kedelaye later stated that Masra is suspected.

Masra’s legal team denounced his arrest as politically motivated on 17 May and demanded his immediate release. In addition, Les Transformateurs released an official statement on 18 May in which it claimed that the arrest was an “orchestrated manoeuvre” by the state. It added that the charges against Masra were fabricated. It acknowledged that the audio tape was a recording of Masra’s voice but claimed that it had been released following fatal anti-government unrest in October 2022 and did not relate to the Mandakao violence. The party also argued that the recording had been manipulated with the use of artificial intelligence. Les Transformateurs added that, given Masra’s comments had been made over two years prior, they are covered by a November 2023 agreement (which quashed an arrest warrant against Masra and allowed him to return to Chad following self-imposed exile). As of 20 May, Masra remains in police custody and no trial date has been publicly announced.

The Signal

It is likely that the charges against Succes Masra are politically motivated. The state’s argument so far, attempting to link the 15 May clashes in Logone Occidental region to Masra and the Les Transformateurs party, has been vague and undetailed. The government has claimed that the conflict in Mandakao was a “methodically executed massacre” incited by opposition figures, but has not provided any concrete evidence to explain the motives or grievances of alleged perpetrators. The state appears to be relying on the fact that Masra hails from the Ngambay community (one of the groups that was involved in the clashes). The apparent recording of a call to arms from Masra does not appear to have been released by any official social media accounts linked to Masra or Les Transformateurs. In addition, the recording was not immediately brought forward as the reason for the violence; all initial reports released on 15 May after the conflict indicated that it had emerged from a dispute over a grazing area between Fulani nomadic herders and local Ngambay farmers. The clashes were reported to have begun during a mediation process over the dispute led by local political authorities. Communal tensions over land are common in Logone Occidental; fatal violence as a result has occurred on several occasions in the past. Masra’s arrest could be an attempt by the government to divert blame for the incident, given the high number of fatalities and international coverage of the violence, and avoid heightened grievances towards the state for failing to effectively mediate long-standing communal disputes. There is precedent for the administration of president Mahamat Idriss Deby resorting to opposition suppression to silence government critics, and Masra has been highly critical of the Deby administration over recent months. In particular, he has claimed that the May 2024 presidential election and December 2024 legislative elections were fraudulent and skewed in favour of Deby and the ruling MPS party.

Masra’s arrest and expected prosecution reflect a definitive end to the Deby administration’s efforts to reconcile with the opposition. Masra’s initial return to Chad and appointment as prime minister between January and May 2024 appeared to have been an attempt by the state to appease the political opposition and reduce tensions ahead of the 2024 presidential and legislative elections. Masra resigned as prime minister following the presidential ballot, as Deby was set to appoint a new cabinet following his election; the opposition leader was then replaced as prime minister by Allamaye Halina. Deby has now secured his hold on power through victory in the presidential election and the legislative ballot (in which his MPS secured a majority with 124 of 188 seats in the National Assembly). Subsequently, his apparent need to appease the opposition has lessened, and Deby will likely be eager to maintain his hold on power through a continued hard-line approach in reaction to opposition actions and criticism. In a recent such example, Olivier Monodji, a reporter for Radio France International, was arrested on 09 March over writing reports which were allegedly critical of the country’s economic situation as well as activities of Russian paramilitary forces in West Africa. Monodji was formally charged on 11 March and has been imprisoned since. Similarly, Masra’s arrest may have been motivated by recent critical remarks made against the state. The opposition leader stated on 30 April, during an anniversary celebration for Les Transformateurs, that Deby’s actions thus far as president have been “cosmetic” and that the president should change course to implement true change for the population. Masra also reportedly called during the speech for Deby to uphold the December 2023 agreement with Les Transformateurs by fostering better “political cohabitation” with the opposition. The MPS reacted negatively to Masra’s comments. MPS secretary general Mahamat Zen Bada labelled the comments “outrageous” and “narcissistic”, and indicated that the 2023 agreement had not provided “permanent political privileges” for Les Transformateurs. Given this apparent rise in tensions between the state and the opposition party, it is likely that Masra will be found guilty, which could result in an extended prison sentence. There is some possibility that this sentence could be commuted, shortened, or dropped at a later stage should his prosecution generate significant pushback from Les Transformateurs and the wider political opposition.

The potential for opposition protests will be heightened over the near term, but widespread or significant unrest is not expected at this stage. In response to Masra’s arrest, members of Les Transformateurs have issued calls through social media for the party’s supporters to mobilise; although, no official plans for protest action have been revealed. It is likely that the party will organise protests in N’Djamena to coincide with any court dates in the proceedings against Masra. The potential for protests will increase the longer that Masra remains in detention. Demonstrations could be somewhat well-attended given that Les Transformateurs is one of the better supported opposition parties in Chad. The party holds no seats in the National Assembly, due to its boycott of the December 2024 elections, but Masra did place second in the May 2024 presidential ballot with 18.54 percent of the vote. In addition, heightened grievances from the wider opposition over the Deby administration’s continued suppression of opposition activity could attract participation from other parties. Any opposition-led demonstrations are likely to be accompanied by incidents of unrest and clashes with security forces. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that demonstrations and associated violence will remain localised and relatively limited at this stage. Overall, opposition-led protests have been infrequent since the fatal anti-government unrest in N’Djamena in October 2022, and those that have occurred have not been widely supported. This is likely due to expectations that state security would intervene – likely violently – in protest action through the use of tear gas and arrests to disperse protesters. This is expected to continue to reduce popular protest appetite, while the response from state security will limit the duration of any protests that do occur.